3 Reasons why console gaming isn't "dying"

At SXSWi today, Rovio's Peter Vesterbacka intimated several odd ideas during a panel on Social Gaming.

One such of these ideas is that console games are "dying". Frankly, it's a pretty absurd comment as mobile and social games are actually causing an expansion in the market...but in dealing with buzzwords here are

Three reasons Why Console Gaming isn't Dying:

1. Kinect - Microsoft's Kinect motion-sensing camera for the Xbox 360 has been named the fastest-selling consumer electronics device in history. Rushing out the door at a Guinness Record setting 133,333 units a day in its first two months as well as preventing MS from accelerating an Xbox refresh.

2. IP - All but a handful of the top Intellectual Properties in gaming are on Exclusively on Consoles. Even with all the popularity of Farmville and Angry Birds factored in, there is no comparison to the brands in place on consoles. When (and only when) this relationship inverts, there will be some merit to the "death knell" for consoles.

3. Netflix - Netflix is on all of the major consoles. This seems unrelated, but it's critical. The more time spent on the device, the more likely they are to engage in alternative activities or purchases.

Some extra Food for thought:

U.S Console Sales through January 2011:

34.5 million Wii units sold

25.8 million Xbox 360

15.7 PlayStation 3

Comments

[Olivier]

The claim that "consoles are dying" may still be hyperbolic right now but the trend is nevertheless quite clear:
- Kinect sales are hardware sales and mostly tied to a pre-existing installed based. They are more a demonstration of Microsoft's marketing muscle than anything else. Tell me how many great Kinect game are out there please?
- Fact is consoles are more and more looking like the cemetary of tired old AAA IPs. The games on console are stale. All the cool new stuff is appearing elsewhere. Minecraft, Angry birds, Cityville, etc... At the IGF, it was striking how few of the nominees where targeting consoles as a platform. When was the last time you turned a console on compared to your smartphone/tablet/PC or the last time you checked Facebook? As a developer, why jump through the insane hoops of the console makers while you could jump through the (currently) much lower hoops of the other platforms?
- Netflix is irrelevant outside of the US.

Clearly, the dynamics do not look in favor of the consoles...

[Dustin Clingman]

If you read the post just before this one, I was talking about how people dial up the heat on the platforms as time goes on. Twitter, Facebook, Apple and Droid will all turn the tables on the users that help make them popular. Mobile and Social are not Island paradises where everything is perfect. They are trying to perform their own land grab, just like the consoles did.

For the record, I'm not saying that consoles will never die. I'm saying they aren't dead yet. In fact, I expect new consoles from Nintendo and Microsoft before the end of the Console Age is over.

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