Developers, Developers, Developers....
Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 8:40PM Remember this guy? 
This is the guy who used to chant "Developers, Developers, Developers". We laugh/ed at Balmer because we game devs didn't want anything to do with those guys.They were nerdy in a crowd of nerds and always seemed to miss the point on what was cool. (Xbox excluded)
Microsoft has this funny way of playing Texas Holdem with you and their cards are face up. You might laugh when they shove all in with two aces showing while you fold, but you should actually be thankful.
Why? Well because companies like Microsoft play with their hands face up and perhaps not surprisingly, Silicon Valley companies (and others) are sharp enough to keep the cards a bit more hidden...for now.
Know these guys?
In the Valley, there are a great many students of Jobs. It's almost a plain fact that if Steve Jobs says that Apple isn't working on something, or that they have zero interest in a particular line of business, that it's down there in the pipe...no matter how many iterations are left in a product cycle.
Where am I going with this?
I wanted to take a moment to call out the general populace of developers as blind fools! Each of the three previous Platform examples needed developers to come in and help prove their business model. Each platform promises: "Awesome Revenue Shares!" "Best APIs/Development Environments!" "Become part of the Disruption you're reading about on TechCrunch!"
Heard this story?
Quickly, some small developer is touted out as the norm when they made $25K in one day's sales of random content. OMG! That could have been me!! Where do I sign up?
Now, If you've spent any time in the game industry, you've seen countless fads come and go. Fortunes will definitely be made. The Game is certainly changed, but its almost NEVER changed by the run of the mill guy who's moonlighting on his IT day job because he didn't ever get a career in games.
Developers are literally SOLD the pot of gold awaiting us by platform companies.
Somehow we keep forgetting that these new platforms need developers to prove their business cases. They need us to help create these self fulfilling prophecies they have told investors and customers. They need US to make their fortunes..and when they have the lock in, the rules change. The power structure inverts and if you're not one of the lucky early adopters who built enough success to be important...it's over.
Here are the versions of this story that I can recall in my days in the industry. I'm sure I forgot some. Please post in the comments if you think of any I'm missing:
* The first Mobile Revolution (PocketPC/Palm) - Gonna be big!
* Casual Games! - Broke down to PopCap and then a bunch of content aggregators.
* Flash Advergames!/Flash Games curation in general.
* XBLA Indie slots. That sealed up pretty quick no? At least we got Geometry Wars
* Apple iPhone - We'll all be rich!
* Droid!
* Facebook! ZOMG!
So when these fads come around, who really makes the money? Guys like Mark Pincus:***
Ask yourself why? Well guys like Mark come into games around a fad to PROVE a business can be built while everyone else is not paying attention. Mark isn't trying to change the world or leave his indelible mark on gaming, he's trying to make money... That's why he's doing just that while he helps redefine the rules that the rest of devs on Facebook have to play by right alongside Zuck.
By the time you've heard the Siren's Song, the game is almost over. The platform is just about mature. Developers pouring in on the Gold Rush...but there will be precious few to win the day.
The lesson here is about commitment. If you're not fully "I burned my boats" committed, you have as much chance of getting rich of these platforms as you do winning the lottery. Wake up. Have Fun. Most importantly, be realistic.
***Note: I am not a Pincus apologist. I'm strictly commenting on his business model, not the quality of his games or his company.
Reader Comments (4)
However, I follow XBLA pretty darn closely and I would have to argue that it's absolutely a platform where small development teams are succeeding at creating enjoyable experiences that are extremely relevant and resonant, not to mention easily accesible by a very large audience. Maybe they're not making a billion dollars, but they're making great games. With just a little more support from MS, I feel like the actual "Indie Games" section of XBLA would do amazingly well, too - but I think they may be a tad afraid at it eating away from their storefront profits. After all, a lot of the great games on Indies cost about 10-20% of what a regular XBLA game does. (Just a note: Geometry Wars is an original Xbox game by recently-closed Bizarre Creations, creators of Project Gotham Racing (it was on the PGR2 disc), not an indie.)
When XBLA was launched, it was touted as the place where the next great games would be created. That dried up as soon as player interest (i.e. the platform took hold) grew. Once the model was set and understood, all the major publishers went to work on getting content in the channel, clogging up the space for smaller groups.
There are many, but here's one such report on the issue. I can personally attest for this from my earlier years chasing the dream... http://www.destructoid.com/rumortoid-xbox-live-arcade-snubbing-indie-developers--139738.phtml
I agree, there's no doubt that the early years of XBLA were dominated by big companies making small games that left a tiny impact, but my observations seem to suggest that MS has perhaps seen the light, at least a little bit. With titles like Castle Crashers, Limbo, Braid, Super Meat Boy, and other indies among - if not the - most popular on XBLA, more indies seem to be getting their shot now. Just a day or two before reading your post, I was thinking that a huge amount of the game announcements I was excited about seeing come from PAX and GDC this year are for smaller XBLA/PSN titles. Also, I really shouldn't really fault MS too much for not giving the XNA indies a chance, because things like DreamBuildPlay and Winter Indie Games Uprising are certainly showing (in my opinion) that they're interested in rejuvenating the interest in creating games for the platform.
However, it may be true that I am in fact just drinking the Kool-Aid. While maintaining a realistic view that XBLA is certainly not the end-all-be-all platform, it is perhaps the one I'm most anxious to watch evolve over the coming years.